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Market Share Analysis of High-Speed Railway and Airline Between Bangkok and Chiang-Mai

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After Thailand’s first High-speed Rail is completed, a “mode shift” from airlines to high-speed railway should occur. This thesis will introduce forecasted effects of high-speed railway development in Thailand and analyze market share between both transport modes. It will be conducted by Multinomial Logit in Discrete Choice Model to analyze passenger model choice, which is necessary for understanding modal shifts due to High-speed Rail. The result of a revenue simulation will help fulfill the vision of development strategy for High- speed Rail in Thailand.
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  i         Market Share Analysis of High-Speed Railway and Airline betweenBangkok and Chiang-Mai – Using Passenger Choice Behavior Model –  March 2012Transportation Engineering and Socio-TechnologyGraduate School of Science and TechnologyMaster Course Nihon UniversityRapee Parichatrkanont  ii    iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT   This dissertation could not be completed successfully without many suggestions andincredible support from many people. I would like to thank and dedicate a part of the successto all of them.First, I would like to express my profound gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Dr.Tomoyuki Todoroki, for his valuable advice and encouragement through my study at NihonUniversity. I deeply appreciate his enduring supervision, kind provisions, the unlimitedsupport, and all the valuable time and effort contributing toward my accomplishment. Hisguidance and recommendations are precious in my future professional life.Special thanks are conveyed to all members of Public Transportation PlanningLaboratory, especially to Asst. Prof. Dr. Hiroaki Nishiuchi, Dr. Taro Aratani, Mr. AkiraEndo, Mr. Takahiro Kazumi, and other members, for their continual support in variousmatters during my stay at Nihon University. I also would like to use this opportunity to thank Asst. Prof. Joseph Falout for his precious time to assist in my English technical writing, andall of my friends from other laboratories, departments, and universities, especially Prof. Dr.Mongkut Piantanakulchai, Dr. Jirapat Phormprapha, Mr. Watana Neangchuklin, and other foreign friends for being with me throughout my academic career.Last but not least, I would like to express my deepest appreciation to my beloved parents, my friends in Thailand, and my many other friends in various communities who havealways been the source of my inspiration. Without their constant support, unremittingencouragement, infinitive love, and every effort made for the accomplishments in my life, Iwould not have come this far. I am forever in debt to them. This dissertation is dedicated toall of them.Rapee Parichatrkanont  iv ABSTRACT Recently the Association of South East Asian Nations or ASEAN had agreed to relaximmigration policies, allowing people to commute freely across national borders by 2015.That means the transportation will become an important role to carry massive numbers of  people crossing countries. And Thailand’s government has a project to construct High-speedRail for supporting business and tourism industries’ infrastructure.However, after low-cost airline business was introduced in Thailand, a “mode shift” phenomenon had occurred as inter-city passengers from rail and road modes are moving tolow-cost airline.After Thailand’s first High-speed Rail is completed, a “mode shift” from airlines tohigh-speed railway should occur. This thesis will introduce forecasted effects of high-speedrailway development in Thailand and analyze market share between both transport modes. Itwill be conducted by Multinomial Logit in Discrete Choice Model to analyze passenger model choice, which is necessary for understanding modal shifts due to High-speed Rail. Theresult of a revenue simulation will help fulfill the vision of development strategy for High-speed Rail in Thailand.
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