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Scenario modelling of ecosystem service provision with a new soil model (MOSES) Matt Aitkenhead Joanna Clark

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Scenario modelling of ecosystem service provision with a new soil model (MOSES) Matt Aitkenhead Joanna Clark The MOSES model Modelling Of Soil Ecosystem Services Simulates multiple processes Allows quantification
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Scenario modelling of ecosystem service provision with a new soil model (MOSES) Matt Aitkenhead Joanna Clark The MOSES model Modelling Of Soil Ecosystem Services Simulates multiple processes Allows quantification of ecosystem services Allows scenario simulation of land use/climate change Process-based point soil profile model 1 minute timestep, 1 cm layer Outputs saved every 12 hours (optional) MOSES interface Multiple parameters & processes Physical Chemical Water Organic matter Physical parameters & processes Temperature Thermal conductivity Texture Bulk density Vegetation roots Layer thickness Physical Diffusion Air pressure Weathering Solar radiation Chemical parameters & processes Colour CO2, Methane NOx ph Cation exchange Solubility Chemical Atmospheric deposition Clays Chemical equilibrium Weathering Minerals Organic parameters & processes DPM RPM HUM Vegetation dynamics Vegetation deposition Organic matter IOM DOC Decomposition Microbial biomass Fungal biomass Faunal biomass Water parameters & processes Rainfall Matric potential Hydraulic conductivity Humidity Erosion Water Groundwater Chemical transport Leaching Freeze/thaw Vegetation uptake Thermal movement Previous validation work Aitkenhead, M.J., Albanito, F., Jones, M.B., Development and testing of a process-based soil model (MOSES) for ecosystem services. Ecological Modelling 222, Aitkenhead, M.J., Exploring potential contributions of soil microbes to Martian terraforming through soil simulation. CAREX Conference on Life in Extreme Environments, Dublin, October 2011. Modelling ecosystem services All model parameters automatically output Subroutines for integrating selected parameters C sequestration Total void space (not implemented) Water storage Microbial mass x activity (summed over all functional groups) (probably a function, not a service) Allows bottom to top analysis of model predictions Scope for additional ES implementations in future Experimental design Moor House ECN site, 57 7 N, 2 4 W 565m elevation, sphagnum peat bog Environmental conditions monitored Soil matric potential measured Clark et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. 40, MOSES model simulated drought conditions and other environmental factors 5 scenarios of land cover change from 1 st Jan 1991 Not always plausible considering the conditions! ECN website image of Moor House, CEH Scenarios explored (I) Scenario 1 no change (peatland vegetation) Scenario 2 good rough grazing Scenario 3 heather moorland Scenario 4 coniferous forest Scenario 5 deciduous forest In each scenario, vegetation is planted on Jan 1 st 1991 Vegetation submodel controls several growth, littering, ground cover and rooting parameters (parameterised from literature) Soil matric potential Soil matric potential (annual mean) Soil matric potential S1 (no change) S2 (rough grazing) S3 (heather moorland) S4 (coniferous forest) S5 (broadleaved forest) Scenarios explored (II) Scenario 1 no change (peatland vegetation) Scenario 2 good rough grazing Scenario 3 heather moorland Scenario 4 coniferous forest Scenario 5 deciduous forest In each scenario, vegetation is planted on Jan 1 st 1991 No droughting, used rainfall pattern from 1991 Emissions (methane, kg/ha) Emissions (CO2, kg/ha) Emissions (total C, kg/ha) Ecosystem services - changes S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 C sequestration Water storage Microbial Decreasing rapidly Decreasing slowly No change Increasing slowly Increasing rapidly Conclusions MOSES can be used to model soil at a range of levels: Processes/parameters Functions Ecosystem services Incorporates a wide range of processes/parameters (and is designed to be extendable) Useful for scenario modelling If anyone would like a postdoc and doesn t need paying, I have 13,000 lines of code that need cleaned up and worked on
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